In past seasons, the eventual official bracket has born a reasonably close resemblance to the committee’s hypothesis. The bracket reveal became a thing in 2017; since then, the committee has placed 22 of 48 teams on the same seed line in the reveal they would occupy when the bracket became official. Only nine teams fell off the top four lines to lower seeds and were replaced. The committee is getting somewhat worse at this — or the challenge is tougher — because last year included five misses, the most ever, most notably Louisville and Nevada both falling from No. 4 seeds to the 7 line.FAGAN: Bracket predictions: Projecting the Field of 68Based on the uncommon turnover with the No. 1 ranking and the abundance of unranked teams wreaking having on the top 25, the 2019-20 season figured to pose a far greater challenge in that regard. And the past 23 days of basketball have produced what we expected.If the projection by Sporting News’ Ryan Fagan were the final bracket, the 2020 reveal would have three teams missing from their original projections. There have been plenty of teams whose Februarys did not support the initial acclaim or dismissal:West VirginiaFebruary committee preview: No. 2Ryan Fagan’s Sporting News current bracket: No. 7Mike DeCourcy’s Fox Sports current bracket: No. 8Overview: The Mountaineers owned an 18-4 record on the morning of Feb. 8, when the NCAA Bracket Preview aired on CBS. This was considered by some, including Sporting News, to be the most curious of the committee’s decisions.Within hours, they took the court at Oklahoma’s Lloyd Noble and made someone look smart. (Not the committee.)Losing at Oklahoma, a solid team that likely will make the field, almost was the highlight of West Virginia’s past month. The Mountaineers have won only one time in the past seven games and now are 19-10. Indeed, two of those were against projected No. 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor, but two also were against teams whose NCAA Tournament hopes already were over (TCU) or became reanimated by beating the Mountaineers (Texas).What’s left: at Iowa State, BaylorForecast: Mountaineers will wind up in an 8/9 game. The good news: If they win, at least they won’t have to play KU or Baylor.KentuckyFebruary committee preview: UnrankedRyan Fagan’s Sporting News current bracket: No. 3Mike DeCourcy’s Fox Sports current bracket: No. 2Overview: Kentucky was 17-5 on the morning of the bracket preview, with a loss to lowly Evansville that looked much worse when it wasn’t countered by subsequent wins over LSU, Auburn and Florida. (It still looks kinda bad, and continues to agitate Kentucky coach John Calipari. The Wildcats have lost only once since Jan. 18, have won six road games and are 24-5. They clinched the SEC regular-season title over the weekend.)What’s left: Tennessee, at FloridaForecast: It will be difficult to push Kentucky below the 3 line, and a continued surge could push them into a No. 2 seed.DukeFebruary committee preview: No. 2Ryan Fagan’s Sporting News current bracket: No. 3Mike DeCourcy’s Fox Sports current bracket: No. 3Overview: The predictive metrics continue to love the Blue Devils, whether it’s KenPom (No. 5), ESPN’s BPI (No. 2) or the NCAA NET rankings (No. 6), which are a predictive/results hybrid metric. But they’ve dropped three games since the preview, including two against teams that are either borderline (N.C. State) or out of luck (Wake Forest) in terms of earning an NCAA at-large bid. And they needed two miracles to avoid defeat at North Carolina in the first of their rivalry games. The Devils are 24-6 while competing in the poorest ACC in memory.What’s left: North CarolinaForecast: An ACC Tournament title could get them back into the No. 2 seed conversation. It is their good fortune that many of those competing against them for spots on the 2 and 3 lines (Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall or Michigan State, Penn State and Maryland) are in the same conference and might damage each other’s cases.FAGAN: The 11 most important bubble games this weekAuburnFebruary committee preview: No. 4Ryan Fagan’s Sporting News current bracket: No. 5Mike DeCourcy’s Fox Sports current bracket: No. 5Overview: Auburn was 20-2 before the Feb. 8 reveal and has gone only 4-3 since, with losses to two teams that will not make the tournament without automatic bids (Georgia, Missouri).What’s left: Texas A&M, at Tennessee.Forecast: It’s possible, given those numbers, that the committee will judge the Tigers more harshly and stash them on the 6 line even if they manage to win both. It seems a No. 5 would be their ceiling without an SEC Tournament title — which they certainly are capable of achieving.CreightonFebruary committee preview: UnrankedRyan Fagan’s Sporting News current bracket: No. 3Mike DeCourcy’s Fox Sports current bracket: No. 3 If you think March typically is a mad month, take a look at what February has done to the NCAA selection committee‘s official tournament bracket projection.Now an annual tradition, the committee reveals the top 16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament roughly one month before selection Sunday. On this occasion, the decision to do so demonstrated how out of character this particular college basketball season has been — and almost certainly will continue to be until the champion is crowned. Overview: The Bluejays’ dynamic offense powered them to a remarkable February that included victories at Seton Hall and Marquette. They won five in a row before their surge ended with a surprising loss Sunday against St. John’s, but an attack that now ranks No. 6 in adjusted efficiency and produced 83 points per game in that stretch carried them to prominent positions on most bracket projections.What’s left: Georgetown, Seton Hall.Forecast: Closing with consecutive home games, including one against the top team in the conference, is an enviable position for the Jays. Rising to a No. 2 seed appears to be not out of the question, although it certainly would require a Big East Tournament title (or a lot of losing among other candidates).